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Jagodina vs Sinđelić — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Jagodina
Jagodina
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sinđelić
Sinđelić
6/8/2025Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 29Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Jagodina53%
×Draw24%
Sinđelić23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jagodina
1.72
Sinđelić
1.04

Jagodina creates 65% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 72 away

creates per match

Jagodina
1.85
Sinđelić
1.32

allows per match

Jagodina
0.76
Sinđelić
1.58

finishing

Jagodina+0.00on par
Sinđelić+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagodina ↓

Sinđelić →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Jagodina or draw
77%
Jagodina or Sinđelić
76%
Draw or Sinđelić
47%

Winning margin

Jagodina wins by 2+
29%
Sinđelić wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Jagodina 1+ goals
82%
Jagodina 2+ goals
51%
Jagodina 3+ goals
25%
Sinđelić 1+ goals
65%
Sinđelić 2+ goals
28%
Sinđelić 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Jagodina (draw refunded)
70%
Sinđelić (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagodina at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.76 · 82 matches

Sinđelić away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.58 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagodina attack 1.85 + Sinđelić defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.72

Sinđelić attack 1.32 + Jagodina defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Jagodina scores more
53%
level
24%
Sinđelić scores more
23%

Jagodina at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Jagodina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Jagodina 0–0 Sinđelić

Jagodina and Sinđelić drew 0-0 in Srpska Liga - East on June 8, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Jagodina.