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Jagodina vs SFS Borac — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Jagodina
Jagodina
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
SFS Borac
SFS Borac
5/13/2023Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 26Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Jagodina56%
×Draw24%
SFS Borac20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jagodina
1.72
SFS Borac
0.93

Jagodina creates 85% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 72 away

creates per match

Jagodina
1.85
SFS Borac
1.10

allows per match

Jagodina
0.76
SFS Borac
1.58

finishing

Jagodina+0.00on par
SFS Borac+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagodina ↓

SFS Borac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Jagodina or draw
80%
Jagodina or SFS Borac
76%
Draw or SFS Borac
44%

Winning margin

Jagodina wins by 2+
31%
SFS Borac wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Jagodina 1+ goals
82%
Jagodina 2+ goals
51%
Jagodina 3+ goals
25%
SFS Borac 1+ goals
61%
SFS Borac 2+ goals
24%
SFS Borac 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Jagodina (draw refunded)
73%
SFS Borac (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagodina at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.76 · 82 matches

SFS Borac away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.58 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagodina attack 1.85 + SFS Borac defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.72

SFS Borac attack 1.10 + Jagodina defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Jagodina scores more
56%
level
24%
SFS Borac scores more
20%

Jagodina at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Jagodina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Jagodina 1–1 SFS Borac

Jagodina and SFS Borac drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - East on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Jagodina.