Jagiellonia 1–0 KuPS: Result & Stats

Jagiellonia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

KuPS

A. Pululu 51'

11/27/2025

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 4Chorten Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Jagiellonia52%

×Draw27%

KuPS21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JagielloniaExpected goals in this matchKuPS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.81

Jagiellonia

1.46

KuPS

0.81

Jagiellonia creates 80% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.77

creates per match

0.85

0.77

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Jagiellonia

1.77

KuPS

0.85

allows per match

Jagiellonia

0.77

KuPS

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jagiellonia+0.00on par

KuPS+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagiellonia ↓

KuPS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Jagiellonia or draw

79%

Jagiellonia or KuPS

73%

Draw or KuPS

48%

Winning margin

Jagiellonia wins by 2+

26%

KuPS wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Jagiellonia 1+ goals

77%

Jagiellonia 2+ goals

43%

Jagiellonia 3+ goals

18%

KuPS 1+ goals

56%

KuPS 2+ goals

19%

KuPS 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Jagiellonia (draw refunded)

72%

KuPS (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagiellonia at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

KuPS away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagiellonia attack 1.77 + KuPS defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.46

KuPS attack 0.85 + Jagiellonia defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Jagiellonia scores more

52%

level

27%

KuPS scores more

21%

Jagiellonia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Jagiellonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Kreidl

KuPS · G

9.2

Match Events

51'

A. Pululu↳ N. Wojtuszek

63'

J. Voutilainen← M. Toure

63'

P. Golubickas← P. Pennanen

68'

D. Drachal← A. Pozo

68'

L. Flach← D. Rallis

73'

B. Armah← T. Hamalainen

79'

L. Prip← B. Mazurek

82'

A. Sadiku← D. Arifi

82'

J. Luyeye-Lutumba← C. Antwi

87'

A. Jackson← O. Pietuszewski

89'

Samuli Miettinen

90+2'

Bernardo Vital

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JagielloniaKuPS

Overview

43%Possession57%

17Total Shots6

1.26Expected Goals (xG)0.72

7Corners5

9Fouls6

Shots

17Total Shots6

9On Target0

2Off Target3

6Blocked3

12Inside Box5

5Outside Box1

Passing

43%Possession57%

453Total Passes603

377Accurate Passes521

83%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

1.47Goals Prevented1.47

Discipline

9Fouls6

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2