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Jagiellonia vs Fiorentina — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Jagiellonia
Jagiellonia
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Fiorentina
Fiorentinaadvanced
2/19/2026UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Round of 32Chorten Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Jagiellonia41%
×Draw25%
Fiorentina34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jagiellonia
1.46
Fiorentina
1.31

Jagiellonia creates 11% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 27 away

creates per match

Jagiellonia
1.77
Fiorentina
1.85

allows per match

Jagiellonia
0.77
Fiorentina
1.15

finishing

Jagiellonia+0.00on par
Fiorentina+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagiellonia ↓

Fiorentina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Jagiellonia or draw
66%
Jagiellonia or Fiorentina
75%
Draw or Fiorentina
59%

Winning margin

Jagiellonia wins by 2+
20%
Fiorentina wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Jagiellonia 1+ goals
77%
Jagiellonia 2+ goals
43%
Jagiellonia 3+ goals
18%
Fiorentina 1+ goals
73%
Fiorentina 2+ goals
38%
Fiorentina 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Jagiellonia (draw refunded)
55%
Fiorentina (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagiellonia at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

Fiorentina away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagiellonia attack 1.77 + Fiorentina defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.46

Fiorentina attack 1.85 + Jagiellonia defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jagiellonia scores more
41%
level
25%
Fiorentina scores more
34%

Jagiellonia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jagiellonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jagiellonia vs Fiorentina

Fiorentina beat Jagiellonia 3-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on February 19, 2026.

The match was played at Chorten Arena in Bialystok.