Jagiellonia 7–0 CSKA 1948: Result & Stats

Jagiellonia

FT

7 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

CSKA 1948

Miki Villar 112'

B. Mazurek 96'

O. Pietuszewski 95'

T. Rapnouil 89' (OG)

D. Churlinov 84'

T. Costa Silva 58'

K. Hansen 14'

1/19/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Jagiellonia60%

×Draw23%

CSKA 194818%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JagielloniaExpected goals in this matchCSKA 1948

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

0.89

Jagiellonia

1.84

CSKA 1948

0.89

Jagiellonia creates 107% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.92

creates per match

0.92

0.85

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Jagiellonia

1.92

CSKA 1948

0.92

allows per match

Jagiellonia

0.85

CSKA 1948

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jagiellonia+0.00on par

CSKA 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagiellonia ↓

CSKA 1948 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Jagiellonia or draw

82%

Jagiellonia or CSKA 1948

77%

Draw or CSKA 1948

40%

Winning margin

Jagiellonia wins by 2+

35%

CSKA 1948 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Jagiellonia 1+ goals

84%

Jagiellonia 2+ goals

55%

Jagiellonia 3+ goals

28%

CSKA 1948 1+ goals

59%

CSKA 1948 2+ goals

22%

CSKA 1948 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Jagiellonia (draw refunded)

77%

CSKA 1948 (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagiellonia at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

CSKA 1948 away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagiellonia attack 1.92 + CSKA 1948 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.84

CSKA 1948 attack 0.92 + Jagiellonia defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Jagiellonia scores more

60%

level

23%

CSKA 1948 scores more

18%

Jagiellonia at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Jagiellonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

K. Hansen

58'

T. Costa Silva

84'

D. Churlinov

89'

T. RapnouilOwn goal

95'

O. Pietuszewski

96'

B. Mazurek

112'

Miki Villar

Jagiellonia

CSKA

67

22

2

21

58

34

30

10

9

40

7

1

22

72

3

44

14

31

11

99

⚽

Hansen

10

Pululu

20

⚽

Villar

Manager: Adrian Siemieniec

Jagiellonia substitutes

82Silva21Churlinov12Mazurek16Sacek71Stypulkowski50Abramowicz87Retsos5Polak29Listkowski80Pietuszewski51Rybak

CSKA 1948 substitutes

31Rapnouil

Match Recap: Jagiellonia vs CSKA 1948

Jagiellonia beat CSKA 1948 7-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 19, 2025.

Goals: K. Hansen (14'), T. Costa Silva (58'), D. Churlinov (84'), T. Rapnouil (89' o.g.), O. Pietuszewski (95'), B. Mazurek (96'), Miki Villar (112').

Jagiellonia vs CSKA 1948 — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Jagiellonia vs CSKA 1948