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Jagiellonia U19 vs Warta Poznań U19 — Central Youth League 2020

Jagiellonia U19
Jagiellonia U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Warta Poznań U19
Warta Poznań U19
5/26/2024Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Jagiellonia U1956%
×Draw19%
Warta Poznań U1925%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jagiellonia U19
2.52
Warta Poznań U19
1.64

Jagiellonia U19 creates 54% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 30 away

creates per match

Jagiellonia U19
2.21
Warta Poznań U19
1.47

allows per match

Jagiellonia U19
1.81
Warta Poznań U19
2.83

finishing

Jagiellonia U19+0.00on par
Warta Poznań U19+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagiellonia U19 ↓

Warta Poznań U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Jagiellonia U19 or draw
75%
Jagiellonia U19 or Warta Poznań U19
81%
Draw or Warta Poznań U19
44%

Winning margin

Jagiellonia U19 wins by 2+
36%
Warta Poznań U19 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Jagiellonia U19 1+ goals
92%
Jagiellonia U19 2+ goals
71%
Jagiellonia U19 3+ goals
45%
Warta Poznań U19 1+ goals
81%
Warta Poznań U19 2+ goals
49%
Warta Poznań U19 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Jagiellonia U19 (draw refunded)
70%
Warta Poznań U19 (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagiellonia U19 at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.81 · 52 matches

Warta Poznań U19 away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.83 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagiellonia U19 attack 2.21 + Warta Poznań U19 defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.52

Warta Poznań U19 attack 1.47 + Jagiellonia U19 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Jagiellonia U19 scores more
56%
level
19%
Warta Poznań U19 scores more
25%

Jagiellonia U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Jagiellonia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jagiellonia U19 vs Warta Poznań U19

Warta Poznań U19 beat Jagiellonia U19 2-1 in Central Youth League on May 26, 2024.