Jagiellonia U19 5–2 Raków Częstochowa U19

Jagiellonia U19

FT

5 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Raków Częstochowa U19

5/7/2023

Central Youth League · Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Jagiellonia U1945%

×Draw21%

Raków Częstochowa U1934%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jagiellonia U19Expected goals in this matchRaków Częstochowa U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.73

Jagiellonia U19

2.02

Raków Częstochowa U19

1.73

Jagiellonia U19 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 22 away

2.21

creates per match

1.64

1.81

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Jagiellonia U19

2.21

Raków Częstochowa U19

1.64

allows per match

Jagiellonia U19

1.81

Raków Częstochowa U19

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jagiellonia U19+0.00on par

Raków Częstochowa U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagiellonia U19 ↓

Raków Częstochowa U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Jagiellonia U19 or draw

66%

Jagiellonia U19 or Raków Częstochowa U19

79%

Draw or Raków Częstochowa U19

55%

Winning margin

Jagiellonia U19 wins by 2+

25%

Raków Częstochowa U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Jagiellonia U19 1+ goals

87%

Jagiellonia U19 2+ goals

60%

Jagiellonia U19 3+ goals

33%

Raków Częstochowa U19 1+ goals

82%

Raków Częstochowa U19 2+ goals

52%

Raków Częstochowa U19 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Jagiellonia U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Raków Częstochowa U19 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagiellonia U19 at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.81 · 52 matches

Raków Częstochowa U19 away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagiellonia U19 attack 2.21 + Raków Częstochowa U19 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.02

Raków Częstochowa U19 attack 1.64 + Jagiellonia U19 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Jagiellonia U19 scores more

45%

level

21%

Raków Częstochowa U19 scores more

34%

Jagiellonia U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Jagiellonia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff