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Jagiellonia U19 vs Lech Poznań U19 — Central Youth League 2020

Jagiellonia U19
Jagiellonia U19
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Lech Poznań U19
Lech Poznań U19
11/8/2023Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Jagiellonia U1939%
×Draw21%
Lech Poznań U1940%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jagiellonia U19
1.88
Lech Poznań U19
1.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 52 away

creates per match

Jagiellonia U19
2.21
Lech Poznań U19
2.02

allows per match

Jagiellonia U19
1.81
Lech Poznań U19
1.54

finishing

Jagiellonia U19+0.00on par
Lech Poznań U19+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagiellonia U19 ↓

Lech Poznań U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Jagiellonia U19 or draw
60%
Jagiellonia U19 or Lech Poznań U19
79%
Draw or Lech Poznań U19
61%

Winning margin

Jagiellonia U19 wins by 2+
20%
Lech Poznań U19 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Jagiellonia U19 1+ goals
85%
Jagiellonia U19 2+ goals
56%
Jagiellonia U19 3+ goals
29%
Lech Poznań U19 1+ goals
85%
Lech Poznań U19 2+ goals
57%
Lech Poznań U19 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Jagiellonia U19 (draw refunded)
49%
Lech Poznań U19 (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagiellonia U19 at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.81 · 52 matches

Lech Poznań U19 away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.54 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagiellonia U19 attack 2.21 + Lech Poznań U19 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.88

Lech Poznań U19 attack 2.02 + Jagiellonia U19 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Jagiellonia U19 scores more
39%
level
21%
Lech Poznań U19 scores more
40%

Lech Poznań U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lech Poznań U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Central Youth League: Jagiellonia U19 0–2 Lech Poznań U19

Lech Poznań U19 beat Jagiellonia U19 2-0 in Central Youth League on November 8, 2023.