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Jagiellonia U18 vs Zagłębie Lubin U18 — Central Youth League 2020

Jagiellonia U18
Jagiellonia U18
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Zagłębie Lubin U18
Zagłębie Lubin U18
3/20/2022Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Jagiellonia U1848%
×Draw21%
Zagłębie Lubin U1831%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jagiellonia U18
2.21
Zagłębie Lubin U18
1.75

Jagiellonia U18 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 37 away

creates per match

Jagiellonia U18
2.79
Zagłębie Lubin U18
1.54

allows per match

Jagiellonia U18
1.97
Zagłębie Lubin U18
1.62

finishing

Jagiellonia U18+0.00on par
Zagłębie Lubin U18+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagiellonia U18 ↓

Zagłębie Lubin U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Jagiellonia U18 or draw
69%
Jagiellonia U18 or Zagłębie Lubin U18
79%
Draw or Zagłębie Lubin U18
52%

Winning margin

Jagiellonia U18 wins by 2+
29%
Zagłębie Lubin U18 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Jagiellonia U18 1+ goals
89%
Jagiellonia U18 2+ goals
65%
Jagiellonia U18 3+ goals
38%
Zagłębie Lubin U18 1+ goals
83%
Zagłębie Lubin U18 2+ goals
52%
Zagłębie Lubin U18 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Jagiellonia U18 (draw refunded)
61%
Zagłębie Lubin U18 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagiellonia U18 at home — creates 2.79, concedes 1.97 · 38 matches

Zagłębie Lubin U18 away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagiellonia U18 attack 2.79 + Zagłębie Lubin U18 defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 2.21

Zagłębie Lubin U18 attack 1.54 + Jagiellonia U18 defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Jagiellonia U18 scores more
48%
level
21%
Zagłębie Lubin U18 scores more
31%

Jagiellonia U18 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Jagiellonia U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jagiellonia U18 vs Zagłębie Lubin U18

Jagiellonia U18 beat Zagłębie Lubin U18 3-1 in Central Youth League on March 20, 2022.