Jagiellonia U18 4–2 Wisła Kraków U18

Jagiellonia U18

FT

4 – 2

Wisła Kraków U18

9/30/2020

Central Youth League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Jagiellonia U1842%

×Draw20%

Wisła Kraków U1838%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jagiellonia U18Expected goals in this matchWisła Kraków U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

2.10

Jagiellonia U18

2.23

Wisła Kraków U18

2.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

2.79

creates per match

2.24

1.97

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Jagiellonia U18

2.79

Wisła Kraków U18

2.24

allows per match

Jagiellonia U18

1.97

Wisła Kraków U18

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jagiellonia U18+0.00on par

Wisła Kraków U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagiellonia U18 ↓

Wisła Kraków U18 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Jagiellonia U18 or draw

62%

Jagiellonia U18 or Wisła Kraków U18

80%

Draw or Wisła Kraków U18

58%

Winning margin

Jagiellonia U18 wins by 2+

24%

Wisła Kraków U18 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Jagiellonia U18 1+ goals

89%

Jagiellonia U18 2+ goals

65%

Jagiellonia U18 3+ goals

38%

Wisła Kraków U18 1+ goals

88%

Wisła Kraków U18 2+ goals

62%

Wisła Kraków U18 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Jagiellonia U18 (draw refunded)

53%

Wisła Kraków U18 (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagiellonia U18 at home — creates 2.79, concedes 1.97 · 38 matches

Wisła Kraków U18 away — creates 2.24, concedes 1.68 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagiellonia U18 attack 2.79 + Wisła Kraków U18 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 2.23

Wisła Kraków U18 attack 2.24 + Jagiellonia U18 defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Jagiellonia U18 scores more

42%

level

20%

Wisła Kraków U18 scores more

38%

Jagiellonia U18 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Jagiellonia U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff