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Jagiellonia U18 vs Śląsk Wrocław U18 — Central Youth League 2020

Jagiellonia U18
Jagiellonia U18
FT
1 – 2
Śląsk Wrocław U18
Śląsk Wrocław U18
6/19/2021Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Jagiellonia U1845%
×Draw20%
Śląsk Wrocław U1834%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jagiellonia U18
2.23
Śląsk Wrocław U18
1.93

Jagiellonia U18 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Jagiellonia U18
2.79
Śląsk Wrocław U18
1.89

allows per match

Jagiellonia U18
1.97
Śląsk Wrocław U18
1.68

finishing

Jagiellonia U18+0.00on par
Śląsk Wrocław U18+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagiellonia U18 ↓

Śląsk Wrocław U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Jagiellonia U18 or draw
66%
Jagiellonia U18 or Śląsk Wrocław U18
80%
Draw or Śląsk Wrocław U18
55%

Winning margin

Jagiellonia U18 wins by 2+
26%
Śląsk Wrocław U18 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Jagiellonia U18 1+ goals
89%
Jagiellonia U18 2+ goals
65%
Jagiellonia U18 3+ goals
38%
Śląsk Wrocław U18 1+ goals
85%
Śląsk Wrocław U18 2+ goals
57%
Śląsk Wrocław U18 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Jagiellonia U18 (draw refunded)
57%
Śląsk Wrocław U18 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagiellonia U18 at home — creates 2.79, concedes 1.97 · 38 matches

Śląsk Wrocław U18 away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.68 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagiellonia U18 attack 2.79 + Śląsk Wrocław U18 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 2.23

Śląsk Wrocław U18 attack 1.89 + Jagiellonia U18 defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Jagiellonia U18 scores more
45%
level
20%
Śląsk Wrocław U18 scores more
34%

Jagiellonia U18 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Jagiellonia U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jagiellonia U18 vs Śląsk Wrocław U18

Śląsk Wrocław U18 beat Jagiellonia U18 2-1 in Central Youth League on June 19, 2021.