Jagiellonia U18 1–3 Polonia Warszawa U18

Jagiellonia U18

FT

1 – 3

Polonia Warszawa U18

10/1/2022

Central Youth League · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Jagiellonia U1845%

×Draw20%

Polonia Warszawa U1834%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jagiellonia U18Expected goals in this matchPolonia Warszawa U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

1.96

Jagiellonia U18

2.26

Polonia Warszawa U18

1.96

Jagiellonia U18 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 22 away

2.79

creates per match

1.95

1.97

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Jagiellonia U18

2.79

Polonia Warszawa U18

1.95

allows per match

Jagiellonia U18

1.97

Polonia Warszawa U18

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jagiellonia U18+0.00on par

Polonia Warszawa U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagiellonia U18 ↓

Polonia Warszawa U18 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Jagiellonia U18 or draw

66%

Jagiellonia U18 or Polonia Warszawa U18

80%

Draw or Polonia Warszawa U18

55%

Winning margin

Jagiellonia U18 wins by 2+

27%

Polonia Warszawa U18 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Jagiellonia U18 1+ goals

89%

Jagiellonia U18 2+ goals

66%

Jagiellonia U18 3+ goals

39%

Polonia Warszawa U18 1+ goals

86%

Polonia Warszawa U18 2+ goals

58%

Polonia Warszawa U18 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Jagiellonia U18 (draw refunded)

57%

Polonia Warszawa U18 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagiellonia U18 at home — creates 2.79, concedes 1.97 · 38 matches

Polonia Warszawa U18 away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.73 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagiellonia U18 attack 2.79 + Polonia Warszawa U18 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.26

Polonia Warszawa U18 attack 1.95 + Jagiellonia U18 defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Jagiellonia U18 scores more

45%

level

20%

Polonia Warszawa U18 scores more

34%

Jagiellonia U18 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Jagiellonia U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff