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Jagiellonia U18 vs Legia Warszawa U18 — Central Youth League 2020

Jagiellonia U18
Jagiellonia U18
FT
3 – 6
HT: 3 – 3
Legia Warszawa U18
Legia Warszawa U18
5/14/2022Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Jagiellonia U1847%
×Draw19%
Legia Warszawa U1834%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jagiellonia U18
2.44
Legia Warszawa U18
2.06

Jagiellonia U18 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Jagiellonia U18
2.79
Legia Warszawa U18
2.16

allows per match

Jagiellonia U18
1.97
Legia Warszawa U18
2.08

finishing

Jagiellonia U18+0.00on par
Legia Warszawa U18+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagiellonia U18 ↓

Legia Warszawa U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Jagiellonia U18 or draw
66%
Jagiellonia U18 or Legia Warszawa U18
81%
Draw or Legia Warszawa U18
53%

Winning margin

Jagiellonia U18 wins by 2+
28%
Legia Warszawa U18 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Jagiellonia U18 1+ goals
91%
Jagiellonia U18 2+ goals
70%
Jagiellonia U18 3+ goals
43%
Legia Warszawa U18 1+ goals
87%
Legia Warszawa U18 2+ goals
61%
Legia Warszawa U18 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Jagiellonia U18 (draw refunded)
58%
Legia Warszawa U18 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagiellonia U18 at home — creates 2.79, concedes 1.97 · 38 matches

Legia Warszawa U18 away — creates 2.16, concedes 2.08 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagiellonia U18 attack 2.79 + Legia Warszawa U18 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.44

Legia Warszawa U18 attack 2.16 + Jagiellonia U18 defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Jagiellonia U18 scores more
47%
level
19%
Legia Warszawa U18 scores more
34%

Jagiellonia U18 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Jagiellonia U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Central Youth League: Jagiellonia U18 3–6 Legia Warszawa U18

Legia Warszawa U18 beat Jagiellonia U18 6-3 in Central Youth League on May 14, 2022.