Jagiellonia U18 2–2 Korona Kielce U18

Jagiellonia U18

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Korona Kielce U18

9/10/2022

Central Youth League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Jagiellonia U1854%

×Draw19%

Korona Kielce U1827%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jagiellonia U18Expected goals in this matchKorona Kielce U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.61

1.83

Jagiellonia U18

2.61

Korona Kielce U18

1.83

Jagiellonia U18 creates 43% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 23 away

2.79

creates per match

1.70

1.97

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Jagiellonia U18

2.79

Korona Kielce U18

1.70

allows per match

Jagiellonia U18

1.97

Korona Kielce U18

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jagiellonia U18+0.00on par

Korona Kielce U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagiellonia U18 ↓

Korona Kielce U18 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Jagiellonia U18 or draw

73%

Jagiellonia U18 or Korona Kielce U18

81%

Draw or Korona Kielce U18

46%

Winning margin

Jagiellonia U18 wins by 2+

35%

Korona Kielce U18 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Jagiellonia U18 1+ goals

93%

Jagiellonia U18 2+ goals

73%

Jagiellonia U18 3+ goals

47%

Korona Kielce U18 1+ goals

84%

Korona Kielce U18 2+ goals

54%

Korona Kielce U18 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Jagiellonia U18 (draw refunded)

67%

Korona Kielce U18 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagiellonia U18 at home — creates 2.79, concedes 1.97 · 38 matches

Korona Kielce U18 away — creates 1.70, concedes 2.43 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagiellonia U18 attack 2.79 + Korona Kielce U18 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.61

Korona Kielce U18 attack 1.70 + Jagiellonia U18 defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Jagiellonia U18 scores more

54%

level

19%

Korona Kielce U18 scores more

27%

Jagiellonia U18 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Jagiellonia U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff