Jagiellonia U18 4–1 Escola Varsovia U18

Jagiellonia U18

FT

4 – 1

Escola Varsovia U18

5/30/2021

Central Youth League · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Jagiellonia U1849%

×Draw20%

Escola Varsovia U1831%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jagiellonia U18Expected goals in this matchEscola Varsovia U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

1.78

Jagiellonia U18

2.26

Escola Varsovia U18

1.78

Jagiellonia U18 creates 27% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 22 away

2.79

creates per match

1.59

1.97

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Jagiellonia U18

2.79

Escola Varsovia U18

1.59

allows per match

Jagiellonia U18

1.97

Escola Varsovia U18

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jagiellonia U18+0.00on par

Escola Varsovia U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagiellonia U18 ↓

Escola Varsovia U18 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Jagiellonia U18 or draw

69%

Jagiellonia U18 or Escola Varsovia U18

80%

Draw or Escola Varsovia U18

51%

Winning margin

Jagiellonia U18 wins by 2+

29%

Escola Varsovia U18 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Jagiellonia U18 1+ goals

89%

Jagiellonia U18 2+ goals

66%

Jagiellonia U18 3+ goals

39%

Escola Varsovia U18 1+ goals

83%

Escola Varsovia U18 2+ goals

53%

Escola Varsovia U18 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Jagiellonia U18 (draw refunded)

61%

Escola Varsovia U18 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagiellonia U18 at home — creates 2.79, concedes 1.97 · 38 matches

Escola Varsovia U18 away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.73 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagiellonia U18 attack 2.79 + Escola Varsovia U18 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.26

Escola Varsovia U18 attack 1.59 + Jagiellonia U18 defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Jagiellonia U18 scores more

49%

level

20%

Escola Varsovia U18 scores more

31%

Jagiellonia U18 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Jagiellonia U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff