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Jagiellonia II vs Wissa Szczuczyn — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Jagiellonia II
Jagiellonia II
FT
3 – 0
Wissa Szczuczyn
Wissa Szczuczyn
8/14/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Ośrodek Szkoleniowy Jagiellonii Białystok

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Jagiellonia II59%
×Draw21%
Wissa Szczuczyn19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jagiellonia II
1.99
Wissa Szczuczyn
1.04

Jagiellonia II creates 91% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 18 away

creates per match

Jagiellonia II
1.76
Wissa Szczuczyn
0.56

allows per match

Jagiellonia II
1.53
Wissa Szczuczyn
2.22

finishing

Jagiellonia II+0.00on par
Wissa Szczuczyn+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagiellonia II ↓

Wissa Szczuczyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Jagiellonia II or draw
81%
Jagiellonia II or Wissa Szczuczyn
79%
Draw or Wissa Szczuczyn
41%

Winning margin

Jagiellonia II wins by 2+
35%
Wissa Szczuczyn wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Jagiellonia II 1+ goals
86%
Jagiellonia II 2+ goals
59%
Jagiellonia II 3+ goals
32%
Wissa Szczuczyn 1+ goals
65%
Wissa Szczuczyn 2+ goals
28%
Wissa Szczuczyn 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Jagiellonia II (draw refunded)
75%
Wissa Szczuczyn (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagiellonia II at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.53 · 104 matches

Wissa Szczuczyn away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagiellonia II attack 1.76 + Wissa Szczuczyn defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.99

Wissa Szczuczyn attack 0.56 + Jagiellonia II defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Jagiellonia II scores more
59%
level
21%
Wissa Szczuczyn scores more
19%

Jagiellonia II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Jagiellonia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jagiellonia II vs Wissa Szczuczyn

Jagiellonia II beat Wissa Szczuczyn 3-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on August 14, 2021.

The match was played at Ośrodek Szkoleniowy Jagiellonii Białystok in Białystok.