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Jagiellonia II vs Stomil Olsztyn — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Jagiellonia II
Jagiellonia II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Stomil Olsztyn
Stomil Olsztyn
5/31/2025III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 33Ośrodek Szkoleniowy Jagiellonii Białystok

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Jagiellonia II43%
×Draw24%
Stomil Olsztyn33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jagiellonia II
1.58
Stomil Olsztyn
1.35

Jagiellonia II creates 17% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 17 away

creates per match

Jagiellonia II
1.76
Stomil Olsztyn
1.18

allows per match

Jagiellonia II
1.53
Stomil Olsztyn
1.41

finishing

Jagiellonia II+0.00on par
Stomil Olsztyn+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagiellonia II ↓

Stomil Olsztyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Jagiellonia II or draw
67%
Jagiellonia II or Stomil Olsztyn
76%
Draw or Stomil Olsztyn
57%

Winning margin

Jagiellonia II wins by 2+
22%
Stomil Olsztyn wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Jagiellonia II 1+ goals
79%
Jagiellonia II 2+ goals
47%
Jagiellonia II 3+ goals
21%
Stomil Olsztyn 1+ goals
74%
Stomil Olsztyn 2+ goals
39%
Stomil Olsztyn 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Jagiellonia II (draw refunded)
57%
Stomil Olsztyn (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagiellonia II at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.53 · 104 matches

Stomil Olsztyn away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagiellonia II attack 1.76 + Stomil Olsztyn defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.58

Stomil Olsztyn attack 1.18 + Jagiellonia II defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jagiellonia II scores more
43%
level
24%
Stomil Olsztyn scores more
33%

Jagiellonia II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Jagiellonia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jagiellonia II vs Stomil Olsztyn

Jagiellonia II and Stomil Olsztyn drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on May 31, 2025.

The match was played at Ośrodek Szkoleniowy Jagiellonii Białystok in Białystok.