Jagiellonia II 1–1 Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

Jagiellonia II

FT

1 – 1

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

2/27/2021

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Ośrodek Szkoleniowy Jagiellonii Białystok

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Jagiellonia II56%

×Draw22%

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jagiellonia IIExpected goals in this matchRuch Wysokie Mazowieckie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.16

Jagiellonia II

1.99

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

1.16

Jagiellonia II creates 72% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 18 away

1.76

creates per match

0.78

1.53

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Jagiellonia II

1.76

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

0.78

allows per match

Jagiellonia II

1.53

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jagiellonia II+0.00on par

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagiellonia II ↓

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Jagiellonia II or draw

78%

Jagiellonia II or Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

78%

Draw or Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie

44%

Winning margin

Jagiellonia II wins by 2+

33%

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Jagiellonia II 1+ goals

86%

Jagiellonia II 2+ goals

59%

Jagiellonia II 3+ goals

32%

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 1+ goals

69%

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 2+ goals

32%

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Jagiellonia II (draw refunded)

72%

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagiellonia II at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.53 · 104 matches

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagiellonia II attack 1.76 + Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.99

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie attack 0.78 + Jagiellonia II defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Jagiellonia II scores more

56%

level

22%

Ruch Wysokie Mazowieckie scores more

22%

Jagiellonia II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Jagiellonia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff