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Jagiellonia II vs Pilica Białobrzegi — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Jagiellonia II
Jagiellonia II
FT
2 – 3
Pilica Białobrzegi
Pilica Białobrzegi
8/27/2023III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Ośrodek Szkoleniowy Jagiellonii Białystok

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Jagiellonia II55%
×Draw21%
Pilica Białobrzegi24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jagiellonia II
2.10
Pilica Białobrzegi
1.33

Jagiellonia II creates 58% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 52 away

creates per match

Jagiellonia II
1.76
Pilica Białobrzegi
1.13

allows per match

Jagiellonia II
1.53
Pilica Białobrzegi
2.44

finishing

Jagiellonia II+0.00on par
Pilica Białobrzegi+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagiellonia II ↓

Pilica Białobrzegi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Jagiellonia II or draw
76%
Jagiellonia II or Pilica Białobrzegi
79%
Draw or Pilica Białobrzegi
45%

Winning margin

Jagiellonia II wins by 2+
33%
Pilica Białobrzegi wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Jagiellonia II 1+ goals
88%
Jagiellonia II 2+ goals
62%
Jagiellonia II 3+ goals
35%
Pilica Białobrzegi 1+ goals
74%
Pilica Białobrzegi 2+ goals
38%
Pilica Białobrzegi 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Jagiellonia II (draw refunded)
70%
Pilica Białobrzegi (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagiellonia II at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.53 · 104 matches

Pilica Białobrzegi away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.44 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagiellonia II attack 1.76 + Pilica Białobrzegi defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.10

Pilica Białobrzegi attack 1.13 + Jagiellonia II defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Jagiellonia II scores more
55%
level
21%
Pilica Białobrzegi scores more
24%

Jagiellonia II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Jagiellonia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Jagiellonia II 2–3 Pilica Białobrzegi

Pilica Białobrzegi beat Jagiellonia II 3-2 in III Liga - Group 1 on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at Ośrodek Szkoleniowy Jagiellonii Białystok in Białystok.