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Jagiellonia II vs Pelikan Łowicz — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Jagiellonia II
Jagiellonia II
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pelikan Łowicz
Pelikan Łowicz
11/16/2024III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Ośrodek Szkoleniowy Jagiellonii Białystok

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Jagiellonia II44%
×Draw24%
Pelikan Łowicz32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jagiellonia II
1.66
Pelikan Łowicz
1.38

Jagiellonia II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 86 away

creates per match

Jagiellonia II
1.76
Pelikan Łowicz
1.23

allows per match

Jagiellonia II
1.53
Pelikan Łowicz
1.56

finishing

Jagiellonia II+0.00on par
Pelikan Łowicz+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagiellonia II ↓

Pelikan Łowicz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Jagiellonia II or draw
68%
Jagiellonia II or Pelikan Łowicz
76%
Draw or Pelikan Łowicz
56%

Winning margin

Jagiellonia II wins by 2+
23%
Pelikan Łowicz wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Jagiellonia II 1+ goals
81%
Jagiellonia II 2+ goals
49%
Jagiellonia II 3+ goals
23%
Pelikan Łowicz 1+ goals
75%
Pelikan Łowicz 2+ goals
40%
Pelikan Łowicz 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Jagiellonia II (draw refunded)
58%
Pelikan Łowicz (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagiellonia II at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.53 · 104 matches

Pelikan Łowicz away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.56 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagiellonia II attack 1.76 + Pelikan Łowicz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.66

Pelikan Łowicz attack 1.23 + Jagiellonia II defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Jagiellonia II scores more
44%
level
24%
Pelikan Łowicz scores more
32%

Jagiellonia II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Jagiellonia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jagiellonia II vs Pelikan Łowicz

Jagiellonia II beat Pelikan Łowicz 4-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on November 16, 2024.

The match was played at Ośrodek Szkoleniowy Jagiellonii Białystok in Białystok.