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Jagiellonia II vs Huragan Morąg — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Jagiellonia II
Jagiellonia II
FT
0 – 1
Huragan Morąg
Huragan Morąg
8/22/2020III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 3Ośrodek Szkoleniowy Jagiellonii Białystok

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Jagiellonia II52%
×Draw22%
Huragan Morąg27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jagiellonia II
1.99
Huragan Morąg
1.38

Jagiellonia II creates 44% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 18 away

creates per match

Jagiellonia II
1.76
Huragan Morąg
1.22

allows per match

Jagiellonia II
1.53
Huragan Morąg
2.22

finishing

Jagiellonia II+0.00on par
Huragan Morąg+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagiellonia II ↓

Huragan Morąg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Jagiellonia II or draw
73%
Jagiellonia II or Huragan Morąg
78%
Draw or Huragan Morąg
48%

Winning margin

Jagiellonia II wins by 2+
30%
Huragan Morąg wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Jagiellonia II 1+ goals
86%
Jagiellonia II 2+ goals
59%
Jagiellonia II 3+ goals
32%
Huragan Morąg 1+ goals
75%
Huragan Morąg 2+ goals
40%
Huragan Morąg 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Jagiellonia II (draw refunded)
66%
Huragan Morąg (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagiellonia II at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.53 · 104 matches

Huragan Morąg away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagiellonia II attack 1.76 + Huragan Morąg defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.99

Huragan Morąg attack 1.22 + Jagiellonia II defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Jagiellonia II scores more
52%
level
22%
Huragan Morąg scores more
27%

Jagiellonia II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Jagiellonia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jagiellonia II vs Huragan Morąg

Huragan Morąg beat Jagiellonia II 1-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on August 22, 2020.

The match was played at Ośrodek Szkoleniowy Jagiellonii Białystok in Białystok.