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Jagiellonia II vs Concordia Elbląg — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Jagiellonia II
Jagiellonia II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Concordia Elbląg
Concordia Elbląg
3/3/2024III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Ośrodek Szkoleniowy Jagiellonii Białystok

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Jagiellonia II57%
×Draw21%
Concordia Elbląg22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jagiellonia II
2.17
Concordia Elbląg
1.29

Jagiellonia II creates 68% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 51 away

creates per match

Jagiellonia II
1.76
Concordia Elbląg
1.04

allows per match

Jagiellonia II
1.53
Concordia Elbląg
2.57

finishing

Jagiellonia II+0.00on par
Concordia Elbląg+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagiellonia II ↓

Concordia Elbląg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Jagiellonia II or draw
78%
Jagiellonia II or Concordia Elbląg
79%
Draw or Concordia Elbląg
43%

Winning margin

Jagiellonia II wins by 2+
35%
Concordia Elbląg wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Jagiellonia II 1+ goals
89%
Jagiellonia II 2+ goals
64%
Jagiellonia II 3+ goals
36%
Concordia Elbląg 1+ goals
72%
Concordia Elbląg 2+ goals
37%
Concordia Elbląg 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Jagiellonia II (draw refunded)
72%
Concordia Elbląg (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagiellonia II at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.53 · 104 matches

Concordia Elbląg away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagiellonia II attack 1.76 + Concordia Elbląg defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.17

Concordia Elbląg attack 1.04 + Jagiellonia II defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Jagiellonia II scores more
57%
level
21%
Concordia Elbląg scores more
22%

Jagiellonia II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Jagiellonia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jagiellonia II vs Concordia Elbląg

Jagiellonia II beat Concordia Elbląg 3-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Ośrodek Szkoleniowy Jagiellonii Białystok in Białystok.