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Jägersburg vs Arminia Ludwigshafen — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Jägersburg
Jägersburg
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Arminia Ludwigshafen
Arminia Ludwigshafen
11/19/2022Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 17Alois-Omlor-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Jägersburg38%
×Draw21%
Arminia Ludwigshafen40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jägersburg
1.89
Arminia Ludwigshafen
1.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 79 away

creates per match

Jägersburg
1.62
Arminia Ludwigshafen
1.87

allows per match

Jägersburg
2.00
Arminia Ludwigshafen
2.16

finishing

Jägersburg+0.00on par
Arminia Ludwigshafen+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jägersburg ↓

Arminia Ludwigshafen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Jägersburg or draw
60%
Jägersburg or Arminia Ludwigshafen
79%
Draw or Arminia Ludwigshafen
62%

Winning margin

Jägersburg wins by 2+
20%
Arminia Ludwigshafen wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Jägersburg 1+ goals
85%
Jägersburg 2+ goals
56%
Jägersburg 3+ goals
29%
Arminia Ludwigshafen 1+ goals
86%
Arminia Ludwigshafen 2+ goals
58%
Arminia Ludwigshafen 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Jägersburg (draw refunded)
49%
Arminia Ludwigshafen (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jägersburg at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.00 · 26 matches

Arminia Ludwigshafen away — creates 1.87, concedes 2.16 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jägersburg attack 1.62 + Arminia Ludwigshafen defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.89

Arminia Ludwigshafen attack 1.87 + Jägersburg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Jägersburg scores more
38%
level
21%
Arminia Ludwigshafen scores more
40%

Arminia Ludwigshafen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Arminia Ludwigshafen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jägersburg vs Arminia Ludwigshafen

Arminia Ludwigshafen beat Jägersburg 4-2 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on November 19, 2022.

The match was played at Alois-Omlor-Sportpark in Homburg.