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Jadran Poreč vs Karlovac 1919 — Second NL 2022

Jadran Poreč
Jadran Poreč
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Karlovac 1919
Karlovac 1919
I. Lepinjica 90+2'
I. Macan 84'
S. Alrakaf 65'
O. Sumic 45', 21'
Z. Pamic 12'
10/14/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 9Stadion Veli Jože

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Jadran Poreč34%
×Draw26%
Karlovac 191940%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jadran Poreč
1.26
Karlovac 1919
1.41

Karlovac 1919 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 31 away

creates per match

Jadran Poreč
1.49
Karlovac 1919
1.26

allows per match

Jadran Poreč
1.56
Karlovac 1919
1.03

finishing

Jadran Poreč+0.00on par
Karlovac 1919+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jadran Poreč ↓

Karlovac 1919 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Jadran Poreč or draw
60%
Jadran Poreč or Karlovac 1919
74%
Draw or Karlovac 1919
66%

Winning margin

Jadran Poreč wins by 2+
14%
Karlovac 1919 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Jadran Poreč 1+ goals
72%
Jadran Poreč 2+ goals
36%
Jadran Poreč 3+ goals
13%
Karlovac 1919 1+ goals
76%
Karlovac 1919 2+ goals
41%
Karlovac 1919 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Jadran Poreč (draw refunded)
45%
Karlovac 1919 (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jadran Poreč at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

Karlovac 1919 away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jadran Poreč attack 1.49 + Karlovac 1919 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.26

Karlovac 1919 attack 1.26 + Jadran Poreč defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Jadran Poreč scores more
34%
level
26%
Karlovac 1919 scores more
40%

Karlovac 1919 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Karlovac 1919 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
Z. Pamic
21'
O. Sumic
45'
O. Sumic
65'
S. Alrakaf
84'
I. Macan
90+2'
I. Lepinjica

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jadran Poreč vs Karlovac 1919

Jadran Poreč beat Karlovac 1919 5-1 in Second NL on October 14, 2023.

Goals: Z. Pamic (12'), O. Sumic (21', 45'), S. Alrakaf (65'), I. Macan (84'), I. Lepinjica (90+2').

The match was played at Stadion Veli Jože in Poreč.