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Jadran Poreč vs Bjelovar — Second NL 2022

Jadran Poreč
Jadran Poreč
FT
1 – 1
Bjelovar
Bjelovar
8/27/2022Second NLSecond NL · Round 2Stadion Veli Jože

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Jadran Poreč40%
×Draw25%
Bjelovar35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jadran Poreč
1.48
Bjelovar
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 59 away

creates per match

Jadran Poreč
1.49
Bjelovar
1.19

allows per match

Jadran Poreč
1.56
Bjelovar
1.47

finishing

Jadran Poreč+0.00on par
Bjelovar+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jadran Poreč ↓

Bjelovar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Jadran Poreč or draw
65%
Jadran Poreč or Bjelovar
75%
Draw or Bjelovar
60%

Winning margin

Jadran Poreč wins by 2+
19%
Bjelovar wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Jadran Poreč 1+ goals
77%
Jadran Poreč 2+ goals
43%
Jadran Poreč 3+ goals
19%
Bjelovar 1+ goals
75%
Bjelovar 2+ goals
40%
Bjelovar 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Jadran Poreč (draw refunded)
53%
Bjelovar (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jadran Poreč at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

Bjelovar away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.47 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jadran Poreč attack 1.49 + Bjelovar defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.48

Bjelovar attack 1.19 + Jadran Poreč defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Jadran Poreč scores more
40%
level
25%
Bjelovar scores more
35%

Jadran Poreč at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Jadran Poreč will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jadran Poreč vs Bjelovar

Jadran Poreč and Bjelovar drew 1-1 in Second NL on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Veli Jože in Poreč.