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Bjelovar vs Jadran Poreč — Second NL 2022

Bjelovar
Bjelovar
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Jadran Poreč
Jadran Poreč
A. Kupsjak 2'
I. Al Tharwan 80'
10/21/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 10Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bjelovar63%
×Draw19%
Jadran Poreč18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bjelovar
2.30
Jadran Poreč
1.14

Bjelovar creates 102% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 45 away

creates per match

Bjelovar
1.88
Jadran Poreč
1.00

allows per match

Bjelovar
1.27
Jadran Poreč
2.73

finishing

Bjelovar+0.00on par
Jadran Poreč+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bjelovar ↓

Jadran Poreč →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Bjelovar or draw
82%
Bjelovar or Jadran Poreč
81%
Draw or Jadran Poreč
37%

Winning margin

Bjelovar wins by 2+
40%
Jadran Poreč wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bjelovar 1+ goals
90%
Bjelovar 2+ goals
67%
Bjelovar 3+ goals
40%
Jadran Poreč 1+ goals
68%
Jadran Poreč 2+ goals
32%
Jadran Poreč 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bjelovar (draw refunded)
78%
Jadran Poreč (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bjelovar at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.27 · 60 matches

Jadran Poreč away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.73 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bjelovar attack 1.88 + Jadran Poreč defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.30

Jadran Poreč attack 1.00 + Bjelovar defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Bjelovar scores more
63%
level
19%
Jadran Poreč scores more
18%

Bjelovar at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Bjelovar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
A. Kupsjak
80'
I. Al Tharwan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bjelovar vs Jadran Poreč

Bjelovar and Jadran Poreč drew 1-1 in Second NL on October 21, 2023.

Goals: A. Kupsjak (2'), I. Al Tharwan (80').

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Bjelovar.