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Jadran Poreč vs Belišće — Second NL 2022

Jadran Poreč
Jadran Poreč
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Belišće
Belišće
10/8/2022Second NLSecond NL · Round 8Stadion Veli Jože

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Jadran Poreč52%
×Draw22%
Belišće26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jadran Poreč
1.94
Belišće
1.31

Jadran Poreč creates 48% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

creates per match

Jadran Poreč
1.49
Belišće
1.07

allows per match

Jadran Poreč
1.56
Belišće
2.40

finishing

Jadran Poreč+0.00on par
Belišće+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jadran Poreč ↓

Belišće →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Jadran Poreč or draw
74%
Jadran Poreč or Belišće
78%
Draw or Belišće
48%

Winning margin

Jadran Poreč wins by 2+
30%
Belišće wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Jadran Poreč 1+ goals
86%
Jadran Poreč 2+ goals
58%
Jadran Poreč 3+ goals
30%
Belišće 1+ goals
73%
Belišće 2+ goals
38%
Belišće 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Jadran Poreč (draw refunded)
67%
Belišće (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jadran Poreč at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

Belišće away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.40 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jadran Poreč attack 1.49 + Belišće defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.94

Belišće attack 1.07 + Jadran Poreč defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Jadran Poreč scores more
52%
level
22%
Belišće scores more
26%

Jadran Poreč at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Jadran Poreč will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Jadran Poreč 2–2 Belišće

Jadran Poreč and Belišće drew 2-2 in Second NL on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Veli Jože in Poreč.