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Jadran LP vs Zmaj Makarska — Third NL - Jug 2019

Jadran LP
Jadran LP
FT
1 – 0
Zmaj Makarska
Zmaj Makarska
8/28/2021Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 1Igralište NK Jadran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Jadran LP77%
×Draw15%
Zmaj Makarska8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jadran LP
2.48
Zmaj Makarska
0.64

Jadran LP creates 288% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 78 away

creates per match

Jadran LP
2.76
Zmaj Makarska
0.64

allows per match

Jadran LP
0.64
Zmaj Makarska
2.21

finishing

Jadran LP+0.00on par
Zmaj Makarska+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jadran LP ↓

Zmaj Makarska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Jadran LP or draw
92%
Jadran LP or Zmaj Makarska
85%
Draw or Zmaj Makarska
23%

Winning margin

Jadran LP wins by 2+
55%
Zmaj Makarska wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Jadran LP 1+ goals
92%
Jadran LP 2+ goals
70%
Jadran LP 3+ goals
44%
Zmaj Makarska 1+ goals
47%
Zmaj Makarska 2+ goals
14%
Zmaj Makarska 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Jadran LP (draw refunded)
91%
Zmaj Makarska (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jadran LP at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.64 · 42 matches

Zmaj Makarska away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.21 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jadran LP attack 2.76 + Zmaj Makarska defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.48

Zmaj Makarska attack 0.64 + Jadran LP defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Jadran LP scores more
77%
level
15%
Zmaj Makarska scores more
8%

Jadran LP at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Jadran LP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jadran LP vs Zmaj Makarska

Jadran LP beat Zmaj Makarska 1-0 in Third NL - Jug on August 28, 2021.

The match was played at Igralište NK Jadran in Ploče.