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Jadran LP vs Zmaj Blato — Third NL - Jug 2019

Jadran LP
Jadran LP
FT
2 – 1
Zmaj Blato
Zmaj Blato
9/14/2019Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 3Igralište NK Jadran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Jadran LP79%
×Draw13%
Zmaj Blato8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jadran LP
2.92
Zmaj Blato
0.86

Jadran LP creates 240% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 25 away

creates per match

Jadran LP
2.76
Zmaj Blato
1.08

allows per match

Jadran LP
0.64
Zmaj Blato
3.08

finishing

Jadran LP+0.00on par
Zmaj Blato+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jadran LP ↓

Zmaj Blato →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Jadran LP or draw
92%
Jadran LP or Zmaj Blato
87%
Draw or Zmaj Blato
21%

Winning margin

Jadran LP wins by 2+
59%
Zmaj Blato wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Jadran LP 1+ goals
94%
Jadran LP 2+ goals
78%
Jadran LP 3+ goals
55%
Zmaj Blato 1+ goals
58%
Zmaj Blato 2+ goals
21%
Zmaj Blato 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Jadran LP (draw refunded)
90%
Zmaj Blato (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jadran LP at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.64 · 42 matches

Zmaj Blato away — creates 1.08, concedes 3.08 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jadran LP attack 2.76 + Zmaj Blato defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.92

Zmaj Blato attack 1.08 + Jadran LP defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Jadran LP scores more
79%
level
13%
Zmaj Blato scores more
8%

Jadran LP at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Jadran LP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Jadran LP 2–1 Zmaj Blato

Jadran LP beat Zmaj Blato 2-1 in Third NL - Jug on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Igralište NK Jadran in Ploče.