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Jadran LP vs Trnje — Second NL 2022

Jadran LP
Jadran LP
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Trnje
Trnje
5/17/2024Second NLSecond NL · Round 28Igralište NK Jadran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Jadran LP61%
×Draw21%
Trnje19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jadran LP
2.10
Trnje
1.08

Jadran LP creates 94% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

creates per match

Jadran LP
2.18
Trnje
1.13

allows per match

Jadran LP
1.03
Trnje
2.03

finishing

Jadran LP+0.00on par
Trnje+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jadran LP ↓

Trnje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Jadran LP or draw
81%
Jadran LP or Trnje
79%
Draw or Trnje
39%

Winning margin

Jadran LP wins by 2+
37%
Trnje wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Jadran LP 1+ goals
88%
Jadran LP 2+ goals
62%
Jadran LP 3+ goals
35%
Trnje 1+ goals
66%
Trnje 2+ goals
29%
Trnje 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Jadran LP (draw refunded)
76%
Trnje (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jadran LP at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Trnje away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.03 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jadran LP attack 2.18 + Trnje defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.10

Trnje attack 1.13 + Jadran LP defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Jadran LP scores more
61%
level
21%
Trnje scores more
19%

Jadran LP at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Jadran LP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jadran LP vs Trnje

Jadran LP and Trnje drew 1-1 in Second NL on May 17, 2024.

The match was played at Igralište NK Jadran in Ploče.