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Jadran LP vs NK Zadar — Third NL - Jug 2019

Jadran LP
Jadran LP
CANC
00:00
NK Zadar
NK Zadar
4/4/2020Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 22Igralište NK Jadran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Jadran LP67%
×Draw19%
NK Zadar14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jadran LP
2.21
NK Zadar
0.88

Jadran LP creates 151% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 9 away

creates per match

Jadran LP
2.76
NK Zadar
1.11

allows per match

Jadran LP
0.64
NK Zadar
1.67

finishing

Jadran LP+0.00on par
NK Zadar+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jadran LP ↓

NK Zadar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Jadran LP or draw
86%
Jadran LP or NK Zadar
81%
Draw or NK Zadar
33%

Winning margin

Jadran LP wins by 2+
44%
NK Zadar wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Jadran LP 1+ goals
89%
Jadran LP 2+ goals
65%
Jadran LP 3+ goals
38%
NK Zadar 1+ goals
59%
NK Zadar 2+ goals
22%
NK Zadar 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Jadran LP (draw refunded)
83%
NK Zadar (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jadran LP at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.64 · 42 matches

NK Zadar away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jadran LP attack 2.76 + NK Zadar defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.21

NK Zadar attack 1.11 + Jadran LP defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Jadran LP scores more
67%
level
19%
NK Zadar scores more
14%

Jadran LP at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Jadran LP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jadran LP face NK Zadar (Third NL - Jug)

Third NL - Jug returns with Jadran LP hosting NK Zadar. Match starts April 4, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Jadran LP host NK Zadar at Igralište NK Jadran.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.