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Jadran LP vs Krk — Second NL 2022

Jadran LP
Jadran LP
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Krk
Krk
11/25/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 15Igralište NK Jadran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Jadran LP62%
×Draw22%
Krk16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jadran LP
1.87
Krk
0.83

Jadran LP creates 125% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 16 away

creates per match

Jadran LP
2.18
Krk
0.63

allows per match

Jadran LP
1.03
Krk
1.56

finishing

Jadran LP+0.00on par
Krk+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jadran LP ↓

Krk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Jadran LP or draw
84%
Jadran LP or Krk
78%
Draw or Krk
38%

Winning margin

Jadran LP wins by 2+
37%
Krk wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Jadran LP 1+ goals
85%
Jadran LP 2+ goals
56%
Jadran LP 3+ goals
29%
Krk 1+ goals
56%
Krk 2+ goals
20%
Krk 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Jadran LP (draw refunded)
79%
Krk (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jadran LP at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Krk away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jadran LP attack 2.18 + Krk defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.87

Krk attack 0.63 + Jadran LP defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Jadran LP scores more
62%
level
22%
Krk scores more
16%

Jadran LP at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Jadran LP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Jadran LP 1–1 Krk

Jadran LP and Krk drew 1-1 in Second NL on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Igralište NK Jadran in Ploče.