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Jacyobá vs Sete de Setembro — Alagoano - 2 2024

Jacyobá
Jacyobá
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sete de Setembro
Sete de Setembro
4/11/2026Alagoano - 2Alagoano - 2 · Group Stage - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Jacyobá8%
×Draw16%
Sete de Setembro76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jacyobá
0.65
Sete de Setembro
2.42

Sete de Setembro creates 272% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

Jacyobá
0.89
Sete de Setembro
2.40

allows per match

Jacyobá
2.44
Sete de Setembro
0.40

finishing

Jacyobá+0.00on par
Sete de Setembro+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jacyobá ↓

Sete de Setembro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–214%
0–311%
0–47%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Jacyobá or draw
24%
Jacyobá or Sete de Setembro
84%
Draw or Sete de Setembro
92%

Winning margin

Jacyobá wins by 2+
2%
Sete de Setembro wins by 2+
53%

Team goals

Jacyobá 1+ goals
48%
Jacyobá 2+ goals
14%
Jacyobá 3+ goals
3%
Sete de Setembro 1+ goals
91%
Sete de Setembro 2+ goals
69%
Sete de Setembro 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Jacyobá (draw refunded)
10%
Sete de Setembro (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jacyobá at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

Sete de Setembro away — creates 2.40, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jacyobá attack 0.89 + Sete de Setembro defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.65

Sete de Setembro attack 2.40 + Jacyobá defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Jacyobá scores more
8%
level
16%
Sete de Setembro scores more
76%

Sete de Setembro at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Sete de Setembro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alagoano - 2: Jacyobá 0–1 Sete de Setembro

Sete de Setembro beat Jacyobá 1-0 in Alagoano - 2 on April 11, 2026.