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Jacyobá vs Igaci — Alagoano - 2 2024

Jacyobá
Jacyobá
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Igaci
Igaci
9/15/2024Alagoano - 2Alagoano - 2 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Edson Matias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Jacyobá12%
×Draw23%
Igaci65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jacyobá
0.59
Igaci
1.72

Igaci creates 192% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

creates per match

Jacyobá
0.89
Igaci
1.00

allows per match

Jacyobá
2.44
Igaci
0.29

finishing

Jacyobá+0.00on par
Igaci+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jacyobá ↓

Igaci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–117%
0–215%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–23%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Jacyobá or draw
35%
Jacyobá or Igaci
77%
Draw or Igaci
88%

Winning margin

Jacyobá wins by 2+
3%
Igaci wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Jacyobá 1+ goals
45%
Jacyobá 2+ goals
12%
Jacyobá 3+ goals
2%
Igaci 1+ goals
82%
Igaci 2+ goals
51%
Igaci 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Jacyobá (draw refunded)
16%
Igaci (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jacyobá at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

Igaci away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jacyobá attack 0.89 + Igaci defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.59

Igaci attack 1.00 + Jacyobá defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Jacyobá scores more
12%
level
23%
Igaci scores more
65%

Igaci at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Igaci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alagoano - 2: Jacyobá 0–3 Igaci

Igaci beat Jacyobá 3-0 in Alagoano - 2 on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Edson Matias in Olho d'Água das Flores, Alagoas.