Jacyobá 2–4 Guarany Alagoano: Result & Stats

Jacyobá

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Guarany Alagoano

P. Raimundo da Rocha Filho 71'

Ramos 39'

Ruan 66', 47'

Bambam 45+5'

Unknown 9'

10/2/2024

Alagoano - 2 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Edson Matias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Jacyobá12%

×Draw17%

Guarany Alagoano70%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JacyobáExpected goals in this matchGuarany Alagoano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

2.40

Jacyobá

0.90

Guarany Alagoano

2.40

Guarany Alagoano creates 167% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

0.89

creates per match

2.36

2.44

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Jacyobá

0.89

Guarany Alagoano

2.36

allows per match

Jacyobá

2.44

Guarany Alagoano

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jacyobá+0.00on par

Guarany Alagoano+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jacyobá ↓

Guarany Alagoano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–211%

0–39%

0–45%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Jacyobá or draw

30%

Jacyobá or Guarany Alagoano

83%

Draw or Guarany Alagoano

88%

Winning margin

Jacyobá wins by 2+

4%

Guarany Alagoano wins by 2+

47%

Team goals

Jacyobá 1+ goals

59%

Jacyobá 2+ goals

23%

Jacyobá 3+ goals

6%

Guarany Alagoano 1+ goals

91%

Guarany Alagoano 2+ goals

69%

Guarany Alagoano 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Jacyobá (draw refunded)

15%

Guarany Alagoano (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jacyobá at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

Guarany Alagoano away — creates 2.36, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jacyobá attack 0.89 + Guarany Alagoano defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.90

Guarany Alagoano attack 2.36 + Jacyobá defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Jacyobá scores more

12%

level

17%

Guarany Alagoano scores more

70%

Guarany Alagoano at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Guarany Alagoano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

39'

Ramos

45+5'

Bambam

47'

Ruan

66'

Ruan

71'

P. Raimundo da Rocha Filho

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff