Jacuipense 3–1 Imperatriz: Result & Stats | Serie C

Jacuipense

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Imperatriz

Popó 90+2'

Railon 22'

Flávio Carneiro 16'

Judson 45+3' (pen)

10/18/2020

Serie C · Round 11Estádio Governador Roberto Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Jacuipense63%

×Draw20%

Imperatriz17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JacuipenseExpected goals in this matchImperatriz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.97

Jacuipense

2.08

Imperatriz

0.97

Jacuipense creates 114% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

1.00

creates per match

0.95

1.00

allows per match

3.16

creates per match

Jacuipense

1.00

Imperatriz

0.95

allows per match

Jacuipense

1.00

Imperatriz

3.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jacuipense+0.00on par

Imperatriz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jacuipense ↓

Imperatriz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Jacuipense or draw

83%

Jacuipense or Imperatriz

80%

Draw or Imperatriz

37%

Winning margin

Jacuipense wins by 2+

39%

Imperatriz wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Jacuipense 1+ goals

87%

Jacuipense 2+ goals

61%

Jacuipense 3+ goals

34%

Imperatriz 1+ goals

62%

Imperatriz 2+ goals

25%

Imperatriz 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Jacuipense (draw refunded)

79%

Imperatriz (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jacuipense at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Imperatriz away — creates 0.95, concedes 3.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jacuipense attack 1.00 + Imperatriz defence 3.16 → ÷2 → 2.08

Imperatriz attack 0.95 + Jacuipense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Jacuipense scores more

63%

level

20%

Imperatriz scores more

17%

Jacuipense at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Jacuipense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Flávio Carneiro

22'

Railon

45+3'

JudsonPenalty

55'

Popó← Elias

63'

Jefferson Araújo← B. Tsague

70'

Eudair← Danilo Rios

78'

Lorran← Vini

81'

Farinha← Flávio Carneiro

81'

Marcel Sacramento← Thiaguinho

90+2'

Popó

Jacuipense

Imperatriz

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Jonilson Veloso

55'▲Popó←▼Elias

70'▲Eudair←▼Danilo Rios

81'▲Farinha←▼Flávio Carneiro

81'▲Marcel Sacramento←▼Thiaguinho

Jacuipense substitutes

PopóEudairFarinhaSacramentoLuanEriveltonLucasMoraisNewton

Manager: Estevam Soares

63'▲Jefferson Araújo←▼B. Tsague

78'▲Lorran←▼Vini

Imperatriz substitutes

AraújoLorranMattosCalchiTomais