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Jacuipense vs Botafogo PB — Serie C 2018

Jacuipense
Jacuipense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Botafogo PB
Botafogo PB
8/28/2020Serie CSerie C · Round 4Estádio Governador Roberto Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Jacuipense38%
×Draw31%
Botafogo PB31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jacuipense
1.05
Botafogo PB
0.93

Jacuipense creates 13% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 88 away

creates per match

Jacuipense
1.00
Botafogo PB
0.86

allows per match

Jacuipense
1.00
Botafogo PB
1.10

finishing

Jacuipense+0.00on par
Botafogo PB+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jacuipense ↓

Botafogo PB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Jacuipense or draw
69%
Jacuipense or Botafogo PB
69%
Draw or Botafogo PB
62%

Winning margin

Jacuipense wins by 2+
15%
Botafogo PB wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Jacuipense 1+ goals
65%
Jacuipense 2+ goals
28%
Jacuipense 3+ goals
9%
Botafogo PB 1+ goals
61%
Botafogo PB 2+ goals
24%
Botafogo PB 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Jacuipense (draw refunded)
55%
Botafogo PB (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jacuipense at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Botafogo PB away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.10 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jacuipense attack 1.00 + Botafogo PB defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.05

Botafogo PB attack 0.86 + Jacuipense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Jacuipense scores more
38%
level
31%
Botafogo PB scores more
31%

Jacuipense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Jacuipense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie C: Jacuipense 1–1 Botafogo PB

Jacuipense and Botafogo PB drew 1-1 in Serie C on August 28, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos in Salvador de Bahia, Bahia.