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Jacuipense U20 vs Atlético Alagoinhas U20 — Baiano U20 2026

Jacuipense U20
Jacuipense U20
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Alagoinhas U20
Atlético Alagoinhas U20
4/5/2025Baiano U20Baiano U20 · 1st Phase - 2CT Manoel Pontes Tanajura

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Jacuipense U2062%
×Draw20%
Atlético Alagoinhas U2018%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jacuipense U20
2.19
Atlético Alagoinhas U20
1.08

Jacuipense U20 creates 103% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 21 away

creates per match

Jacuipense U20
2.04
Atlético Alagoinhas U20
0.95

allows per match

Jacuipense U20
1.22
Atlético Alagoinhas U20
2.33

finishing

Jacuipense U20+0.00on par
Atlético Alagoinhas U20+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jacuipense U20 ↓

Atlético Alagoinhas U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Jacuipense U20 or draw
82%
Jacuipense U20 or Atlético Alagoinhas U20
80%
Draw or Atlético Alagoinhas U20
38%

Winning margin

Jacuipense U20 wins by 2+
39%
Atlético Alagoinhas U20 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Jacuipense U20 1+ goals
89%
Jacuipense U20 2+ goals
64%
Jacuipense U20 3+ goals
37%
Atlético Alagoinhas U20 1+ goals
66%
Atlético Alagoinhas U20 2+ goals
29%
Atlético Alagoinhas U20 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Jacuipense U20 (draw refunded)
78%
Atlético Alagoinhas U20 (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jacuipense U20 at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

Atlético Alagoinhas U20 away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.33 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jacuipense U20 attack 2.04 + Atlético Alagoinhas U20 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.19

Atlético Alagoinhas U20 attack 0.95 + Jacuipense U20 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Jacuipense U20 scores more
62%
level
20%
Atlético Alagoinhas U20 scores more
18%

Jacuipense U20 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Jacuipense U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano U20: Jacuipense U20 2–0 Atlético Alagoinhas U20

Jacuipense U20 beat Atlético Alagoinhas U20 2-0 in Baiano U20 on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at CT Manoel Pontes Tanajura in Salvador, Bahia.