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Jacobinense vs Vitoria Da Conquista — Baiano - 2 2019

Jacobinense
Jacobinense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Vitoria Da Conquista
Vitoria Da Conquista
6/29/2024Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 6Estádio Municipal José Rocha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Jacobinense32%
×Draw26%
Vitoria Da Conquista42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jacobinense
1.17
Vitoria Da Conquista
1.39

Vitoria Da Conquista creates 19% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 18 away

creates per match

Jacobinense
1.17
Vitoria Da Conquista
1.28

allows per match

Jacobinense
1.50
Vitoria Da Conquista
1.17

finishing

Jacobinense+0.00on par
Vitoria Da Conquista+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jacobinense ↓

Vitoria Da Conquista →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Jacobinense or draw
58%
Jacobinense or Vitoria Da Conquista
74%
Draw or Vitoria Da Conquista
68%

Winning margin

Jacobinense wins by 2+
13%
Vitoria Da Conquista wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Jacobinense 1+ goals
69%
Jacobinense 2+ goals
33%
Jacobinense 3+ goals
11%
Vitoria Da Conquista 1+ goals
75%
Vitoria Da Conquista 2+ goals
40%
Vitoria Da Conquista 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Jacobinense (draw refunded)
43%
Vitoria Da Conquista (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jacobinense at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

Vitoria Da Conquista away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jacobinense attack 1.17 + Vitoria Da Conquista defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17

Vitoria Da Conquista attack 1.28 + Jacobinense defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Jacobinense scores more
32%
level
26%
Vitoria Da Conquista scores more
42%

Vitoria Da Conquista at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vitoria Da Conquista will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jacobinense vs Vitoria Da Conquista

Jacobinense and Vitoria Da Conquista drew 1-1 in Baiano - 2 on June 29, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal José Rocha in Jacobina, Bahia.