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Jacobina vs Botafogo BA — Baiano - 2 2019

Jacobina
Jacobina
FT
1 – 0
Botafogo BA
Botafogo BA
7/3/2022Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 10Estádio Municipal José Rocha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Jacobina38%
×Draw28%
Botafogo BA34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jacobina
1.25
Botafogo BA
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 9 away

creates per match

Jacobina
1.06
Botafogo BA
1.22

allows per match

Jacobina
1.13
Botafogo BA
1.44

finishing

Jacobina+0.00on par
Botafogo BA+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jacobina ↓

Botafogo BA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Jacobina or draw
66%
Jacobina or Botafogo BA
72%
Draw or Botafogo BA
62%

Winning margin

Jacobina wins by 2+
17%
Botafogo BA wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Jacobina 1+ goals
71%
Jacobina 2+ goals
36%
Jacobina 3+ goals
13%
Botafogo BA 1+ goals
69%
Botafogo BA 2+ goals
33%
Botafogo BA 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Jacobina (draw refunded)
53%
Botafogo BA (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jacobina at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Botafogo BA away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jacobina attack 1.06 + Botafogo BA defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.25

Botafogo BA attack 1.22 + Jacobina defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Jacobina scores more
38%
level
28%
Botafogo BA scores more
34%

Jacobina at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Jacobina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano - 2: Jacobina 1–0 Botafogo BA

Jacobina beat Botafogo BA 1-0 in Baiano - 2 on July 3, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal José Rocha in Jacobina, Bahia.