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Jacobina U20 vs Vitória U20 — Baiano U20 2026

Jacobina U20
Jacobina U20
FT
2 – 1
Vitória U20
Vitória U20
5/18/2024Baiano U20Baiano U20 · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Municipal José Rocha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Jacobina U2027%
×Draw25%
Vitória U2048%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jacobina U20
1.15
Vitória U20
1.61

Vitória U20 creates 40% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 26 away

creates per match

Jacobina U20
1.29
Vitória U20
2.23

allows per match

Jacobina U20
1.00
Vitória U20
1.00

finishing

Jacobina U20+0.00on par
Vitória U20+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jacobina U20 ↓

Vitória U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Jacobina U20 or draw
52%
Jacobina U20 or Vitória U20
75%
Draw or Vitória U20
73%

Winning margin

Jacobina U20 wins by 2+
11%
Vitória U20 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Jacobina U20 1+ goals
68%
Jacobina U20 2+ goals
32%
Jacobina U20 3+ goals
11%
Vitória U20 1+ goals
80%
Vitória U20 2+ goals
48%
Vitória U20 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Jacobina U20 (draw refunded)
36%
Vitória U20 (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jacobina U20 at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 21 matches

Vitória U20 away — creates 2.23, concedes 1.00 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jacobina U20 attack 1.29 + Vitória U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Vitória U20 attack 2.23 + Jacobina U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Jacobina U20 scores more
27%
level
25%
Vitória U20 scores more
48%

Vitória U20 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Vitória U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano U20: Jacobina U20 2–1 Vitória U20

Jacobina U20 beat Vitória U20 2-1 in Baiano U20 on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal José Rocha in Jacobina, Bahia.