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Jacó vs Puerto Golfito — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Jacó
Jacó
FT
7 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Puerto Golfito
Puerto Golfito
9/10/2023Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 10Estadio Jorge Palmareño Solís

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Jacó46%
×Draw22%
Puerto Golfito31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jacó
1.92
Puerto Golfito
1.55

Jacó creates 24% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 84 away

creates per match

Jacó
1.82
Puerto Golfito
0.92

allows per match

Jacó
2.18
Puerto Golfito
2.01

finishing

Jacó+0.00on par
Puerto Golfito+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jacó ↓

Puerto Golfito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Jacó or draw
69%
Jacó or Puerto Golfito
78%
Draw or Puerto Golfito
54%

Winning margin

Jacó wins by 2+
26%
Puerto Golfito wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Jacó 1+ goals
85%
Jacó 2+ goals
57%
Jacó 3+ goals
30%
Puerto Golfito 1+ goals
79%
Puerto Golfito 2+ goals
46%
Puerto Golfito 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Jacó (draw refunded)
60%
Puerto Golfito (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jacó at home — creates 1.82, concedes 2.18 · 11 matches

Puerto Golfito away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.01 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jacó attack 1.82 + Puerto Golfito defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.92

Puerto Golfito attack 0.92 + Jacó defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Jacó scores more
46%
level
22%
Puerto Golfito scores more
31%

Jacó at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Jacó will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Jacó 7–1 Puerto Golfito

Jacó beat Puerto Golfito 7-1 in Liga de Ascenso on September 10, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Jorge Palmareño Solís in Palmares.