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Jacó vs ADR Jicaral — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Jacó
Jacó
FT
0 – 1
ADR Jicaral
ADR Jicaral
1/24/2024Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 3Estadio Municipal de Puntarenas Miguel Ángel Lito Pérez Treacy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Jacó32%
×Draw23%
ADR Jicaral45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jacó
1.45
ADR Jicaral
1.76

ADR Jicaral creates 21% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 96 away

creates per match

Jacó
1.82
ADR Jicaral
1.34

allows per match

Jacó
2.18
ADR Jicaral
1.07

finishing

Jacó+0.00on par
ADR Jicaral+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jacó ↓

ADR Jicaral →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Jacó or draw
55%
Jacó or ADR Jicaral
77%
Draw or ADR Jicaral
68%

Winning margin

Jacó wins by 2+
15%
ADR Jicaral wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Jacó 1+ goals
77%
Jacó 2+ goals
42%
Jacó 3+ goals
18%
ADR Jicaral 1+ goals
83%
ADR Jicaral 2+ goals
52%
ADR Jicaral 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Jacó (draw refunded)
41%
ADR Jicaral (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jacó at home — creates 1.82, concedes 2.18 · 11 matches

ADR Jicaral away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.07 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jacó attack 1.82 + ADR Jicaral defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.45

ADR Jicaral attack 1.34 + Jacó defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Jacó scores more
32%
level
23%
ADR Jicaral scores more
45%

ADR Jicaral at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "ADR Jicaral will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jacó vs ADR Jicaral

ADR Jicaral beat Jacó 1-0 in Liga de Ascenso on January 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Puntarenas Miguel Ángel Lito Pérez Treacy in Puntarenas.