Jacksonville Armada 2–1 The Villages

Jacksonville Armada

2 – 1

The Villages

5/6/2018

US Open Cup · Play-In RoundSouthern Oak Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Jacksonville Armada73%

×Draw16%

The Villages10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jacksonville ArmadaExpected goals in this matchThe Villages

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

0.83

Jacksonville Armada

2.50

The Villages

0.83

Jacksonville Armada creates 201% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

0.67

1.00

allows per match

4.00

creates per match

Jacksonville Armada

1.00

The Villages

0.67

allows per match

Jacksonville Armada

1.00

The Villages

4.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jacksonville Armada+0.00on par

The Villages+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jacksonville Armada ↓

The Villages →

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–09%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Jacksonville Armada or draw

90%

Jacksonville Armada or The Villages

84%

Draw or The Villages

27%

Winning margin

Jacksonville Armada wins by 2+

51%

The Villages wins by 2+

Team goals

Jacksonville Armada 1+ goals

92%

Jacksonville Armada 2+ goals

71%

Jacksonville Armada 3+ goals

45%

The Villages 1+ goals

56%

The Villages 2+ goals

20%

The Villages 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Jacksonville Armada (draw refunded)

87%

The Villages (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Jacksonville Armada at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

The Villages away — creates 0.67, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Jacksonville Armada attack 1.00 + The Villages defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

The Villages attack 0.67 + Jacksonville Armada defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 73%?"

Jacksonville Armada scores more

73%

level

16%

The Villages scores more

10%

Jacksonville Armada at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Jacksonville Armada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff