Jacksonville Armada 1–0 Tampa Bay Rowdies

Jacksonville Armada

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tampa Bay Rowdies

5/17/2018

US Open Cup · 2nd RoundSouthern Oak Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Jacksonville Armada49%

×Draw24%

Tampa Bay Rowdies27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jacksonville ArmadaExpected goals in this matchTampa Bay Rowdies

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.17

Jacksonville Armada

1.67

Tampa Bay Rowdies

1.17

Jacksonville Armada creates 43% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

1.33

1.00

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Jacksonville Armada

1.00

Tampa Bay Rowdies

1.33

allows per match

Jacksonville Armada

1.00

Tampa Bay Rowdies

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jacksonville Armada+0.00on par

Tampa Bay Rowdies+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jacksonville Armada ↓

Tampa Bay Rowdies →

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Jacksonville Armada or draw

73%

Jacksonville Armada or Tampa Bay Rowdies

76%

Draw or Tampa Bay Rowdies

51%

Winning margin

Jacksonville Armada wins by 2+

26%

Tampa Bay Rowdies wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Jacksonville Armada 1+ goals

81%

Jacksonville Armada 2+ goals

50%

Jacksonville Armada 3+ goals

23%

Tampa Bay Rowdies 1+ goals

69%

Tampa Bay Rowdies 2+ goals

33%

Tampa Bay Rowdies 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Jacksonville Armada (draw refunded)

65%

Tampa Bay Rowdies (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Jacksonville Armada at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Tampa Bay Rowdies away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Jacksonville Armada attack 1.00 + Tampa Bay Rowdies defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Tampa Bay Rowdies attack 1.33 + Jacksonville Armada defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Jacksonville Armada scores more

49%

level

24%

Tampa Bay Rowdies scores more

27%

Jacksonville Armada at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Jacksonville Armada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff