Jacksonville Armada 0–2 Miami United

Jacksonville Armada

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Miami United

5/23/2018

US Open Cup · 3rd RoundSouthern Oak Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Jacksonville Armada40%

×Draw27%

Miami United33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jacksonville ArmadaExpected goals in this matchMiami United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.17

Jacksonville Armada

1.33

Miami United

1.17

Jacksonville Armada creates 14% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

1.00

creates per match

1.33

1.00

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Jacksonville Armada

1.00

Miami United

1.33

allows per match

Jacksonville Armada

1.00

Miami United

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jacksonville Armada+0.00on par

Miami United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jacksonville Armada ↓

Miami United →

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Jacksonville Armada or draw

67%

Jacksonville Armada or Miami United

73%

Draw or Miami United

60%

Winning margin

Jacksonville Armada wins by 2+

18%

Miami United wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Jacksonville Armada 1+ goals

74%

Jacksonville Armada 2+ goals

38%

Jacksonville Armada 3+ goals

15%

Miami United 1+ goals

69%

Miami United 2+ goals

33%

Miami United 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Jacksonville Armada (draw refunded)

55%

Miami United (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Jacksonville Armada at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Miami United away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Jacksonville Armada attack 1.00 + Miami United defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Miami United attack 1.33 + Jacksonville Armada defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Jacksonville Armada scores more

40%

level

27%

Miami United scores more

33%

Jacksonville Armada at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Jacksonville Armada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff