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JAC vs Police — Championnat National 2019

JAC
JAC
FT
0 – 1
Police
Police
2/24/2021Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 8Stade Cotonou II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

JAC45%
×Draw28%
Police27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JAC
1.29
Police
0.94

JAC creates 37% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 75 away

creates per match

JAC
0.96
Police
0.88

allows per match

JAC
1.00
Police
1.61

finishing

JAC+0.00on par
Police+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JAC ↓

Police →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

JAC or draw
73%
JAC or Police
72%
Draw or Police
55%

Winning margin

JAC wins by 2+
20%
Police wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

JAC 1+ goals
72%
JAC 2+ goals
37%
JAC 3+ goals
14%
Police 1+ goals
61%
Police 2+ goals
24%
Police 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

JAC (draw refunded)
62%
Police (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JAC at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.00 · 47 matches

Police away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.61 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JAC attack 0.96 + Police defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.29

Police attack 0.88 + JAC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

JAC scores more
45%
level
28%
Police scores more
27%

JAC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "JAC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JAC vs Police

Police beat JAC 1-0 in Championnat National on February 24, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Cotonou II in Porto-Novo.