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JAC vs JSP — Championnat National 2019

JAC
JAC
FT
3 – 1
JSP
JSP
1/5/2022Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 12Stade de Kétou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

JAC42%
×Draw30%
JSP28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JAC
1.15
JSP
0.88

JAC creates 31% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 107 away

creates per match

JAC
0.93
JSP
0.80

allows per match

JAC
0.95
JSP
1.37

finishing

JAC+0.00on par
JSP+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JAC ↓

JSP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

JAC or draw
72%
JAC or JSP
70%
Draw or JSP
58%

Winning margin

JAC wins by 2+
18%
JSP wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

JAC 1+ goals
68%
JAC 2+ goals
32%
JAC 3+ goals
11%
JSP 1+ goals
59%
JSP 2+ goals
22%
JSP 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

JAC (draw refunded)
60%
JSP (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JAC at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.95 · 41 matches

JSP away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.37 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JAC attack 0.93 + JSP defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.15

JSP attack 0.80 + JAC defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

JAC scores more
42%
level
30%
JSP scores more
28%

JAC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "JAC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

JAC 3 – 1 JSP

JAC beat JSP 3-1 in Championnat National on January 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stade de Kétou in Kétou.