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JAC vs Avrankou Omnisport — Championnat National 2019

JAC
JAC
FT
0 – 1
Avrankou Omnisport
Avrankou Omnisport
5/30/2021Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Relegation Round - 7Stade Cotonou II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

JAC46%
×Draw29%
Avrankou Omnisport25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JAC
1.27
Avrankou Omnisport
0.85

JAC creates 49% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 74 away

creates per match

JAC
0.96
Avrankou Omnisport
0.70

allows per match

JAC
1.00
Avrankou Omnisport
1.57

finishing

JAC+0.00on par
Avrankou Omnisport+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JAC ↓

Avrankou Omnisport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

JAC or draw
75%
JAC or Avrankou Omnisport
71%
Draw or Avrankou Omnisport
54%

Winning margin

JAC wins by 2+
21%
Avrankou Omnisport wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

JAC 1+ goals
72%
JAC 2+ goals
36%
JAC 3+ goals
14%
Avrankou Omnisport 1+ goals
57%
Avrankou Omnisport 2+ goals
21%
Avrankou Omnisport 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

JAC (draw refunded)
65%
Avrankou Omnisport (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JAC at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.00 · 48 matches

Avrankou Omnisport away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.57 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JAC attack 0.96 + Avrankou Omnisport defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.27

Avrankou Omnisport attack 0.70 + JAC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

JAC scores more
46%
level
29%
Avrankou Omnisport scores more
25%

JAC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "JAC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: JAC 0–1 Avrankou Omnisport

Avrankou Omnisport beat JAC 1-0 in Championnat National on May 30, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Cotonou II in Porto-Novo.