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JAC vs ASOS — Championnat National 2019

JAC
JAC
FT
2 – 1
ASOS
ASOS
5/21/2022Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Relegation Round - 14Stade de Kétou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

JAC41%
×Draw30%
ASOS29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JAC
1.16
ASOS
0.93

JAC creates 25% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 34 away

creates per match

JAC
0.91
ASOS
0.91

allows per match

JAC
0.95
ASOS
1.41

finishing

JAC+0.00on par
ASOS+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JAC ↓

ASOS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

JAC or draw
71%
JAC or ASOS
70%
Draw or ASOS
59%

Winning margin

JAC wins by 2+
17%
ASOS wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

JAC 1+ goals
69%
JAC 2+ goals
32%
JAC 3+ goals
11%
ASOS 1+ goals
61%
ASOS 2+ goals
24%
ASOS 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

JAC (draw refunded)
58%
ASOS (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JAC at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.95 · 43 matches

ASOS away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JAC attack 0.91 + ASOS defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.16

ASOS attack 0.91 + JAC defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

JAC scores more
41%
level
30%
ASOS scores more
29%

JAC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "JAC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JAC vs ASOS

JAC beat ASOS 2-1 in Championnat National on May 21, 2022.

The match was played at Stade de Kétou in Kétou.